Predicting The Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF
Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400883547
Size: 68.89 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 280
View: 5342

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Predicting The Unpredictable

by Susan Elizabeth Hough, Predicting The Unpredictable Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Predicting The Unpredictable books, Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.



Predicting The Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF
Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher: Practical Ink
ISBN: 1943487022
Size: 15.64 MB
Format: PDF
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages :
View: 5918

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Predicting The Unpredictable

by Johanna Rothman, Predicting The Unpredictable Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Predicting The Unpredictable books, If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is “guess.” But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report your estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should—and should not—estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.



Predicting The Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable PDF
Author: Amber Davis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Size: 70.66 MB
Format: PDF, ePub
Category : Gerrymandering
Languages : en
Pages : 64
View: 5141

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Predicting The Unpredictable

by Amber Davis, Predicting The Unpredictable Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Predicting The Unpredictable books,



Predicting The Unpredictable

Predicting the Unpredictable  PDF
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: London School of Economics and Political Science
ISBN:
Size: 39.70 MB
Format: PDF, Mobi
Category : Investment analysis
Languages : en
Pages : 46
View: 6088

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Predicting The Unpredictable

by Terence C. Mills, Predicting The Unpredictable Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Predicting The Unpredictable books, The author discusses how research in financial markets has evolved and whether the application of theories can ever be translated into 'excess profits'.



The Physics Of Wall Street

The Physics of Wall Street PDF
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher: HMH
ISBN: 0547618298
Size: 68.55 MB
Format: PDF
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 304
View: 628

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The Physics Of Wall Street

by James Owen Weatherall, The Physics Of Wall Street Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download The Physics Of Wall Street books, A look inside the world of “quants” and how science can (and can’t) predict financial markets: “Entertaining and enlightening” (The New York Times). After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But while many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack–era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, James Owen Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it’s to make them better. This book reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance, from a geophysicist using a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash to a physicist-run hedge fund earning 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. Weatherall shows how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. The Physics of Wall Street will change how we think about our economic future. “Fascinating history . . . Happily, the author has a gift for making complex concepts clear to lay readers.” —Booklist



The Physics Of Finance

The Physics of Finance PDF
Author: James Owen Weatherall
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781780720876
Size: 30.71 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Category : Prediction theory
Languages : en
Pages : 286
View: 7466

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The Physics Of Finance

by James Owen Weatherall, The Physics Of Finance Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download The Physics Of Finance books, "He takes us on a lively journey from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes, showing how some of the finest scientific minds of the last century came to construct the sophisticated models on which modern securities trading is based"--Back cover.



Aid On The Edge Of Chaos

Aid on the Edge of Chaos PDF
Author: Ben Ramalingam
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191503444
Size: 52.67 MB
Format: PDF
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 480
View: 5020

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Aid On The Edge Of Chaos

by Ben Ramalingam, Aid On The Edge Of Chaos Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Aid On The Edge Of Chaos books, Many agree that the foreign aid system - which today involves virtually every nation on earth - needs drastic change. But there is much conflict as to what should be done. In Aid on the Edge of Chaos, Ben Ramalingam argues that what is most needed is the creative and innovative transformation of how aid works. Foreign aid today is dominated by linear, mechanistic ideas that emerged from early twentieth century industry, and are ill-suited to the world we face today. The problems and systems aid agencies deal with on a daily basis have more in common with ecosystems than machines: they are interconnected, diverse, and dynamic; they cannot be just simply re-engineered or fixed. Outside of aid, social scientists, economists, business leaders, and policy makers have started applying innovative and scientific approaches to such problems, informed by ideas from the 'new science' of complex adaptive systems. Inspired by these efforts, aid practitioners and researchers have started experimenting with such approaches in their own work. This book showcases the experiences, insights, and often remarkable results of innovative thinkers and practitioners who are working to bring these approaches into the mainstream of aid. From transforming child malnutrition to rethinking economic growth, from building peace to reversing desertification, from rural Vietnam to urban Kenya, the ideas of complex systems thinking are starting to be used to make foreign aid more relevant, more appropriate, and more catalytic. Aid on the Edge of Chaos argues that such ideas and approaches should play a vital part of the transformation of aid. Aid should move from being an imperfect post-World War II global resource transfer system, to a new form of global cooperation that is truly fit for the twenty-first century.



Symmetry And Its Discontents

Symmetry and Its Discontents PDF
Author: S. L. Zabell
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521444705
Size: 56.78 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Docs
Category : Language Arts & Disciplines
Languages : en
Pages : 279
View: 6686

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Symmetry And Its Discontents

by S. L. Zabell, Symmetry And Its Discontents Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Symmetry And Its Discontents books, This volume contains essays on the history and philosophy of probability and statistics.



Unexpected

Unexpected PDF
Author: Mark Currie
Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
ISBN: 0748676317
Size: 34.83 MB
Format: PDF, Kindle
Category : Literary Criticism
Languages : en
Pages : 192
View: 6481

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Unexpected

by Mark Currie, Unexpected Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download Unexpected books, Explores the relationship between unexpected events in narrative and life



44 Letters From The Liquid Modern World

44 Letters From the Liquid Modern World PDF
Author: Zygmunt Bauman
Publisher: Polity
ISBN: 0745650570
Size: 59.97 MB
Format: PDF, ePub, Mobi
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 188
View: 6628

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44 Letters From The Liquid Modern World

by Zygmunt Bauman, 44 Letters From The Liquid Modern World Books available in PDF, EPUB, Mobi Format. Download 44 Letters From The Liquid Modern World books, This liquid modern world of ours, like all liquids, cannot stand still and keep its shape for long. Everything keeps changing - the fashions we follow, the events that intermittently catch our attention, the things we dream of and things we fear. And we, the inhabitants of this world in flux, feel the need to adjust to its tempo by being 'flexible' and constantly ready to change. We want to know what is going on and what is likely to happen, but what we get is an avalanche of information that threatens to overwhelm us. How are we to sift the information that really matters from the heaps of useless and irrelevant rubbish? How are we to derive meaningful messages from senseless noise? We face the daunting task of trying to distinguish the important from the insubstantial, distil the things that matter from false alarms and flashes in the pan. Nothing escapes scrutiny so stubbornly as the ordinary things of everyday life, hiding in the light of deceptive and misleading familiarity. To turn them into objects of attention and scrutiny, they must first be torn out from that daily routine: the apparently familiar must be made strange. This is precisely what Zygmunt Bauman seeks to do in these 44 letters: each tells a story drawn from ordinary lives, but tells it in order to reveal an extraordinariness that we might otherwise overlook. Arresting, revealing, disconcerting, these snapshots of life by the most brilliant analyst of our liquid modern world will appeal to a wide readership.